At present, China's light vehicles on the market, the statement, the diesel engine mainly concentrated in the areas of light commercial vehicles. The development of passenger cars in the field by the following factors as:

     1. Because of the complexity and the necessary high-precision components, the price of diesel is higher than that of gasoline engine;

     2. In the Chinese market diesel fuel compared to a slight price advantage;

     3. In the majority of Chinese consumers, the concept of diesel vehicles is still smoke billowing low-level car:

     4. Low-quality diesel further hindered the emissions of diesel vehicles and combustion efficiency;

     5. Although the government issued a number of policies to encourage diesel vehicles, we have not seen the very real operational incentives. So many manufacturers are still adopting a wait and see attitude.

     Of course from the other hand. If oil prices continue to rise, the above disadvantages of diesel vehicles will be offset by the high efficiency. However, the concept of conversion of consumers will take time, so we think that, at least in the next 10 years, the gasoline engine passenger cars will continue to lead the Chinese market. After 10 years of diesel vehicles may take away part of the market share of passenger cars.

     From a technical level, to improve combustion efficiency and engine emission levels. In the international community in the following two trends. We believe that also applies to China.

     Common Rail technology: advanced common-rail technology can significantly enhance the efficiency and reduce diesel emissions. Forecast in 2011, nearly 50 percent of diesel vehicles will be equipped with the system.

     Turbocharger: in the cold and technology together, the turbo will effectively improve engine performance. The development of its variable nozzle from the line, two pressurized variable interface at the end of advanced electronic control supercharger.

     Hybrid development is not yet clear

     Hybrid technology has been a lot of the industry that is environmentally friendly and energy saving at this stage the best solution. By the Government at all levels of support. At the end of 2005, Toyota has been and cooperation in the China FAW Group introduced the Prius hybrid vehicle. Dongfeng, Chery, Chang'an and BYD, and other manufacturers have developed their own hybrid products. Dongfeng hybrid bus in 2005 to complete the final product of stereotypes like cars and through the acceptance test. Changan and Chery also plans to launch its own hybrid vehicles.

     Hybrid in China at present a major challenge from several aspects.

     1. Zhuji Chang from the perspective of technical feasibility will be a very big challenge. It is well known. Mature hybrid technology still has a few international giants such as Toyota monopoly. For self-development, whether in the short term research and development suitable for mass production of hybrid technology for research and development capabilities have been on the weaker Chinese enterprises, big challenges can well be imagined. If a purchase from companies such as Toyota Technical domestic enterprises can bear the huge transfer fees »

     2. From the perspective of how to develop hybrid technology standards and incentives also have great difficulties if only a handful of foreign companies using the standard will be detrimental to other local enterprises to the development of hybrid vehicles.

     3. From the consumer point of view. Although the Chinese community in gradually into the car but a lot of consumers, higher than the usual two or three cars million hybrid vehicles will be difficult to accept.

     4. From a technical point of hybrid by conventional internal combustion engine technology to the challenges of development, for example, direct injection gasoline and advanced diesel engine can also be very energy-saving links on the upgrade.

     Hybrid technology in urban taxi and bus applications can improve fuel economy and emissions. In other show on the road can not use the advantages of hybrid technology. General hybrid technology using petrol or diesel and batteries (motor) hybrid.

 
     "Global Perspective" held that: in resolving these issues before the hybrid in China's future will not become clear. Generally speaking, if the Government can not be introduced for manufacturers and consumers are extremely preferential policies, hybrid in China very difficult to high-speed development.

     China's fuel cell vehicles on three major challenges facing the

     Fuel cell vehicles in the country, "15" during the state government's strong support of 863 projects were included in the state have also made preliminary achievements, such as Tongji University has launched a "Beyond the No. 3" fuel cell vehicles. However, "Global Perspective" that fuel cell vehicles in the next 20 years, not only in China, the international community is still very difficult to industrialization. Specific to China, major challenges are the following:

     1. The core technologies such as fuel cells and control system to grasp: the major international research institutions to the core technology is still very strong monopoly, and the current domestic research and development mainly concentrated in a handful of private enterprises and universities, research institutes, research and development capabilities relative international Large companies remains weak. This model itself on the decisions of the industrialization of the negative. University of strength lies in basic and advanced in the research, the industrialization of the manufacturing process and optimize the products have great disadvantage. And the enterprises do not see short-term returns, in this regard were not enthusiastic about.

     2. Cost control: As we all know, the cost of fuel cells has been high. According to the U.S. Department of Energy authoritative report on the internal combustion engine is now the engine is the average cost of 25 to 35 U.S. dollars / kW, fuel cells should be the price for the 30 U.S. dollars / kW to transport application on competitiveness. The current cost of fuel cells in the 300-500 dollar / kW. At the same time they predicted in 2015 to achieve this goal. China to surpass the United States to achieve this goal ahead of schedule, will be a lot of unknowns. Of course, on the other hand, even in the unresolved question of cost, the Government's support to be able to subsidies, government procurement in China under special conditions might have an effect on production.

     3. The supporting infrastructure construction: building infrastructure will be another very important reason. Including the hydrogen collection, storage, transport and hydrogenation station building. In all of these infrastructure has not improved before the mass production of fuel cells will be very difficult. These are the needs of the government and enterprises to promote. Making hydrogen available electrolysis of water, solar hydrogen production, natural gas, hydrogen and other methods so far on the production of hydrogen have different views together with the hydrogenation station has been so great investment in developing countries do not stand hydrogenation, has built the world And put into operation the hydrogenation station only 81 are under construction 70.

     4. Fuel cell stack life is still less than the expected demand of some technical issues yet to resolve.

     Transmission

     In China, the manual transmission car transmission is still the mainstream. There are two specific reasons: First, the domestic enterprises have basically grasp the development of manual transmission, so to a certain extent, increased the price advantage manual transmission; addition, the vast majority of Chinese car drivers in the study on the use of hand Moving vehicles, they will enjoy the manual car driving pleasure. The automatic transmission, with the exception of Geely cars have independent intellectual property rights to develop the hydraulic control of the three-speed automatic transmission, no one other enterprises with independent intellectual property rights, technology and the full dependence on foreign imports. However, as China is speeding up the process of urbanization and population growth in urban traffic conditions will worsen in China's purchasing power mainly concentrated in the city. The other hand, the vast majority of Chinese families, has only one car, which means that while there may be several family members in the use of the car, and the automatic transmission to the female members of the benefits is self-evident. Therefore, in general, the automatic transmission market share will continue to increase.

     From a technical, energy and infrastructure point of view, we have all kinds of transmission in the development of China made the following brief analysis of trends:

     1. Manual transmission (MT): manual transmission should be said to be the most energy-efficient speed, due to other Chinese enterprises have already mastered the technology, but also in the production of a long-term accumulation of experience, in terms of price and quality advantage will be larger. So in the short term will remain the mainstream of transmission. Lies in its lack of control on the inconvenience, especially in urban conditions.

    2. Automatic transmission (gear): electronically controlled hydraulic control gear automatic transmission is the manipulation of the main characteristics of driving comfort and convenience good. However, due to the existence of the use of hydraulic torque converter its fuel economy has remained low. But on the other hand, because of its entirely by computer-controlled vehicle, if a reasonable procedure, the emissions should be great room. Because of its relatively mature technology we think it will become the mainstream of the automatic transmission. Control mode of control will have the power to control. At the same time more stalls will be introduced.

     3. Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT): Because it can provide a good driving comfort and fuel efficiency, its small displacement engine torque on the edge of the match, "Global Insight" in China that should be a good development.

     4. Double Clutch Transmission (DCT): dual-clutch gearbox as its name suggests using two clutch (dry or wet) to control the shift. To meet comfort at the same time increasing fuel efficiency. In fact, China's current manual transmission production facilities will be very conducive to the development of dual-clutch. Although we believe that in the short term will not become dominant products, but great potential, Chinese enterprises can consider increasing investment in this area for research and development.

     5. Automatic mechanical manual transmission (AMT): Because of its In essence, is just a control system with the manual transmission, still controlled by a single clutch, changing stalls in the process of torque interruption even theoretically can not be avoided Therefore, we automatic mechanical manual transmission in the Chinese market will not occupy large proportion, at least in the light vehicles will not be optimistic about the development of the area.

     According to our investigation and research, for the next 20 years the Chinese market, policies and regulations, and technical response and development.

     Conclusion

     With the increasing oil supply tension, the Government will continue to introduce policies to encourage the development of energy-efficient cars. At the same time, more stringent emissions regulations will be promulgated, but in general, and to technical conditions, in the next 20 years, China will not advance in Europe.

     Internal combustion engine will remain the driving force for the mainstream vehicles, hybrid vehicles will remain at the lower market acceptance, at least in the next 10-20 years, fuel cell vehicles to a commercial production.

     Manual transmission in the short term will continue to lead the market, but the automatic transmission will continue to be the market's favor. We believe that the dual-clutch technology in China's huge potential, domestic enterprises can consider increasing investment in research and development.