Currently vigorously develop the voice of diesel cars increasing by speculation has become a hot topic in society. I earnestly study the "speed up the development of advanced diesel cars," the discussion paper. Feel this discussion paper of high quality, informative material wealth, is rare good learning materials.

I study, only a few points here, for criticism.

Diesel and petrol in China have a stronger division of labor characteristics, the slightest mistake will result in serious social consequences, pork prices rose early warning of problems and so we need to carefully deal with the process of diesel cars. If the future of the diesel really rich, full diesel rental, and other measures to resolve. We need to jump out of future oil circles to solve the problem.

First, the current energy-saving and new energy to the choice of routes

1, the current energy line

The current international energy-saving cars have two major lines: based on fossil energy resources and new cars on the road to resolve.

Based on fossil resources are mainly in three areas: oil, natural gas, coal oil. In the oil products in the mainly diesel vehicles, such as energy-saving measures. Natural gas category includes two types of liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas, which is already encouraging development. Coal oil development is very fast, the Shenhua Group has a major project in operation.

Based on the new energy is a major bio-fuels and fuel cells, hydrogen, and so on. And bio-fuels have such as bio-diesel and ethanol. Ethanol project started earlier, but some of the projects because the grain and pig was an emergency halt. Fuel cell project industrialization of better prospects, hybrid and other commercial operations in some countries developed rapidly. Hydrogen is the best blueprint, but more distant time.

2, various energy-saving measures the interdependence between the

The first line of diesel oil, natural gas, coal oil on a variety of energy supply structure can support consumer demand. The second line of bio-fuels is also dependent on oil prices and the supply capacity of biological products.

The current development strategy for diesel cars and oil supply, energy consumption structure are closely related. We feel the need careful development of diesel cars.

At present all kinds of energy-saving technology and the lines are resource constraints and the different stages of development in different stages and technology industrialization period, all kinds of energy-saving measures . China's consumption of resources as a large country, the demand for energy-saving technology is extremely urgent, no one can say that the project is China's main direction. But the sense of risk control or necessary.

Second, China's oil shortage

1, both diesel and petrol are consumed imported oil resources

At present, China has become a net importer of oil, the higher the degree of dependence on imported gasoline. In 2006, China's apparent consumption of oil up sharply, the whole year reached 353.842 million tons, an increase of 9.5 percent. The apparent consumption of crude oil 322.519 million tons, an increase of 7.6 percent, and a 2005 increase 4.7 percentage points; steam coal diesel apparent consumption of 180.448 million tons, an increase of 7.2 percent growth rate in 2005 than the 2.3 percent increase.

2006 China's domestic crude oil production growth rate slowed down, the whole year produced a total of 183.676 million tons of crude oil, up 1.7 percent. 2006 China's total oil import volume of 192.378 million tons, an increase of 14.5 percent, the total export volume to 22.212 million tons, down 12.3 percent. The total net imports to 170.166 million tons, an increase of 19.3 percent, higher than that of 2000 since the 15.3 percent average annual growth rate of 4 percentage points; dependence on foreign oil reached 48.1 percent, than in 2005 increased 4.1 percentage points.

It is estimated that by 2020, China's oil consumption will reach 440-610 million tons, while China is only available for 180 to 200 million tons, the supply shortfall of 250-430 million tons. As China's oil production can not be a substantial growth in the future, add oil demand almost all rely on imports, before and after 2020, oil imports may more than 300 million tons, becoming the world's largest oil importing countries.

So now guarantee the normal operation of the national economic context, the search for alternative oil resources, oil resources or conservation measures become an important choice. In oil consumption in the structural adjustment needs careful consideration.

2, the diesel shortage of resources

In recent years the development of high-speed car industry background, the diesel shortage has not weakened, or even still aggravated. Therefore the future of diesel is very rich, but must rely on diesel cars and diesel to digest the surplus is questionable.

The development of diesel cars are built on diesel on the basis of wealth, but we certainly short-term shortage of diesel. 2006 the year of the crude oil processing volume increased by 6.3 percent to 307 million tons, an increase of gasoline production 3.7 percent to 53.913 million tons, diesel 5.5 percent year-on-year increase, reaching 116.53 million tons. Chai steam production by 2005 than the 2.05 to 2.08, firewood consumption by 2005 steam than the 2.26 to 2.22 lower. Subject to production technology and production equipment, production of firewood is up steam than the rigid, non-raising potential. In order to meet diesel consumption, to be mass-produced diesel and gasoline output at the same time due to domestic consumption and export capacity and limited capacity to fully digest, diesel output growth by a certain constraints. At present, China's refined oil consumption structure of the status quo is still excess petrol and diesel tight.

Diesel cars of the highest penetration rate in Western Europe, diesel-gasoline ratio is about 2:1 demand, while in China since 2005, the demand for diesel-gasoline ratio has remained at a high of more than 2.22. Over the last decade, China's diesel-gasoline ratio has shown a rising trend, but the market still can not meet the increasing demand for diesel, often leading to a shortage of diesel supply phenomenon, to a certain extent, this also limits the rapid development of diesel vehicles.

In 2006, China's auto tenure reached 49.85 million. China's automobile fuel consumption of gasoline production accounted for about 86 percent, automotive diesel oil consumption of diesel oil output accounts for about 24 percent. 02 starting from the super popular car market, China's car total from 01 to 70 million units jumped to 07 of 4.73 million units of cars in the proportion of tenure increased substantially. This sedan 35 percent average annual compound growth rate of speed of development is difficult to achieve in the future. This led directly motor gasoline demand ultra-high-speed growth and, ultimately, the total quantity of gasoline demand driven growth.

As the years is the fastest-growing gasoline demand period, the result of tension or diesel. From China's passenger car in the proportion of commercial vehicles, is now 1:4, this can not see a new car purchases, depending on reserve volume, more people are breaking open the truck, but the car much faster update on the cycle. Car sales growth slowed down the next, but cycling mileage will drop, gasoline consumption does not necessarily become the biggest bottleneck.

3, all cars can not be diverted at the cost of such resources

According to the forecast of diesel cars commercial prospects are bright. By 2020, China will annually add nearly 11 million cars, diesel cars to leave a huge market space. By 2020, China's auto sales should be 14 to 15 million around that time if the tenure of diesel cars can reach 30 percent, then China will have 4.2 million diesel cars of the huge demand for space. It is predicted that by 2020 China's urban households maintain volume car will reach 68.33 million, and rural residents tenure of family cars, the overall volume of domestic car tenure will reach 72 million. China's diesel cars are very broad market prospect.

This vast market will inevitably bring about the increased demand for diesel and diesel in case of insufficient demand, very dangerous. Consumer goods as cars can not be diverted other means of production of oil. The reality is that private car consumption groups are the most Rebu Qi groups, its social influence public opinion and other groups much larger than the means of production. Therefore we must prevent at all times to ensure the car groups and virtually harm vulnerable groups.

4, a private car does not necessarily bring all gasoline consumption in the same period last year ultra-fast rise

All private car instead of gasoline consumption brought about a direct rise. Private car as a household tool, with the popularity of public transport and facilitation, private car in the morning and evening travel weakened the functions of tools, and the rate of private car moving vehicles are on decline in the mileage should be in. China's private car mileage, are about 1000-1500 km, while Japan's micro-mileage vehicles, only 441 kilometers (05 investigations), China's future as a private car consumption and fuel consumption indicators fell mileage drop Cycling larger decline in automobile fuel consumption. At the same time as the private car universal, official car of decline in new vehicle models are low fuel consumption, overall gasoline consumption growth will inevitably slow.

5, countries in the world of commercial vehicles retain enormous difference, not the same as the pressure on diesel

There is no doubt of the diesel commercial vehicles, but of diesel passenger cars with relatively low.

According to the Ministry of Public Security announced early 08 civilian vehicles tenure of calculation, China's commercial vehicle (truck) reserve of 10.27 million units in civilian vehicles maintain a ratio of 25 percent, the European structure relatively high.

Europe's diesel is forced to choose. Germany's 05 reserve ratio of commercial vehicles only 9 percent, is the first in Europe, Canada and the reserve ratio for commercial vehicles four percent. Therefore diesel passenger cars in Europe have greater opportunities for development, which is Europe's forced to choose.

However, countries in the world of commercial vehicles retain enormous difference. Japan's 05 commercial vehicles maintain a ratio of 25%, Korea 28%. Therefore the development of Asian countries to lower the enthusiasm of diesel cars.

China's commercial vehicles accounted for 25 percent seems low, but behind China which has a huge reserve of agricultural vehicles, agricultural vehicles and these are the big diesel. China's Vehicle Population Structure and Germany huge difference.

Third, the social stability of diesel has special significance

1, diesel is the cornerstone of social and economic stability

Agriculture, fisheries, power generation, railway transportation are the big diesel. Chinese society is the biggest problem of social stability and the stability of agriculture is essential. The current shortage of diesel serious than imagined. When you see Gasoline Shortages of time, it is only the tip of the iceberg. As far as I know many of the social gas stations in rural areas, can only Nongmang diesel, and the other six months is no time for the oil. In particular, is the social gas stations more difficult circumstances, groups around the basic non-oil additive, and the method of people in cities have to buy oil, or simply not work with livestock.

The rapid development of cars, other vehicles will inevitably diverted the oil consumption. If vigorously develop diesel cars, the means of production diesel certainly be squeezed, this led to massive imports of diesel oil, diesel prices in rural areas and supply is threatened, not worth it.

At present, such as the ethanol gasoline prices led to pork and other CPI crisis has become the primary task of the community, we can not run the risk of disruption of agricultural development.

The Chinese government needs to give priority to the most current one of the issues, is to ensure that adequate domestic supply of cheap diesel and in the long-term demand for firewood steam than the high of living in the state, diesel fuel could be seen as associated with the production of goods: as long as the smooth supply of diesel, Gasoline demand will be met. Chai steam than the current supply and demand is basically in balance, or even diesel slightly scarce state, the authorities did not need to knock over balance, through policies to encourage large-scale popularity of diesel passenger vehicles.

2, the voice of small vulnerable groups of China's social development lagging far behind. The income gap between urban and rural areas has always been the absolute value in the widening state and the same resources change on the impact of the various groups is different.

Huge gap between urban and rural areas. The four Chuan Wenchuan earthquake casualties beyond imagination, which began to think of an earthquake killed so many people. Until you see such a tragic television screen before the problem was serious. I do pre-market survey went to Guangyuan in Sichuan and other regions, the huge gap between urban and rural areas. Housing quality and grades of the gap between the very obvious.

China's diesel is also the most poor people involved in the production and living problems, they do not have diesel, or can not afford diesel will be very dangerous. But the voice of small farmers, they will not be in the development of diesel cars on to express their views.

3, the fuel tax should be more careful development of diesel cars

Oil production and oil and strive to two lines, means of subsistence, private car consumption of oil products have to bear, then would it be conducive to social stability and energy conservation and environmental protection. The fuel tax in the process of implementation issues can rely on diesel and petrol users separated to achieve a relatively stable development.

Fuel tax of rising oil prices, further develop the advantages of diesel, increased the proportion of diesel consumption, the price of diesel cars will not be too high, so the diesel price and quality of agricultural how to balance » Diesel between urban and rural areas in the restructuring involves complex issues of interest. The farmers then Que You can not attach to the city in the purchase price of diesel fuel tax, the more the expense of the farmers.

Que You are big problems in rural areas. This will further affect the agricultural and transport of oil supply. This is a lot of vulnerable groups, Que You would seriously inhibit the development of agriculture, but its voice is very small, covert harm occurred. We can not afford. Premier Wen said that in the hands of a grain, and do not mind coming. By that time may flustered. But you do not dare to supply oil city Car » This is an important impact on public opinion of those.

Fourth, from electric bicycles to see the development of alternative energy sources

1, alternative sources of energy diversification

With the rise of oil prices, alternative energy development is rising. The current food problems are very serious, China's arable land is rare, even the development of non-grain crops of bio-diesel, is the last occupation of cultivated land resources, or��food. So consider various alternative sources of energy is the key.

2, the electric bicycle outbreak of growth concern

07 According to the data, the Mainland of China Bicycle community tenure of more than 450 million in 2005, electric bicycles tenure of 23.2 million, or about 5.16 percent in 2006, electric bicycles tenure of 37.47 million, accounting for 8.33 percent, and 06 Taiwan's output of 16 million, 07 year tenure of the electric car to 50 million Taiwan is entirely possible. This also will replace some of the demand for motorcycles and private cars needs. Therefore motorized development in recent years is very difficult to reflect the substitution effect.

With the implementation of fuel tax, electric bicycles will replace part of the development of private cars in the morning and evening travel tool demand. This will significantly reduce gasoline consumption, and further reduce the rate of private cars running. I had to work in the town of Willow Green, motorbike, to ride electric bicycle, when oil is 15 litres / month, the Xiali sedan oil is 25%. Similar to the high oil prices under the bus and certainly a lot of electric vehicles, petrol consumption growth will inevitably reduce the number of so.

5, manufacturers of diesel cars need to carefully consider the industrialization process of

1, inhibit the poor quality of diesel popularity of diesel cars

Advanced diesel engines need to have high-quality diesel phase matching, can give full play to its energy-saving, environmental protection characteristics. �� to the EU emission standards for diesel vehicles, they should use less than 500 ppm sulphur diesel, and to achieve European standards ��, the sulphur content of the following requirements down to 350 ppm. Since the domestic production of diesel technology and the level of relatively backward technology, coupled with the production side for cost considerations, domestic market sales of diesel generally not standard. Long-term use of such diesel oil, will shorten the life of the engine, resulting in exhaust emissions, occupation of serious impact on diesel vehicles in China to promote the use of. It is also difficult to diesel cars an important factor in development. The broader the scope of private car travel, it closed the difference of diesel supply measures will cause inconvenience to many users. The current device very expensive car diesel engines, diesel users to use the economy is not good.

2, the European diesel of its environmental policy based on differences

Diesel vehicles in Europe is rife, a very important reason is that government support. Many European countries to grant duty concessions on its prices much lower than gasoline prices, such as Poland, Belgium, Germany, Italy, lower prices coupled with lower energy consumption, natural popularity of diesel vehicles. Diesel vehicles compared to petrol vehicles, small particulate matter and nitrogen oxides emissions from large, carbon dioxide emissions will have about 40 percent lower. European diesel consumption is too low for the reasons, and to consider the control of carbon dioxide emissions, European countries and China in environmental protection evaluation focus on the different European countries favor the less carbon dioxide emissions from diesel vehicles. The Chinese oil and diesel engines are big problems, small countries more concerned about particulate matter and nitrogen oxides emissions, which also led to a different to Beijing as the representative of the many cities have introduced "to cut firewood."

Europe and the United States is not afraid of food price hikes. The EU also introduced to encourage the development and use of bio-diesel the new provisions, such as bio-diesel exempt from value-added tax, provides for the use of bio-fuel motor vehicles of all fuel, such as the minimum share. Most European countries charge equivalent to 75 percent of high oil prices fuel tax in order to guide people to buy fuel efficient diesel vehicles. In Europe, some countries also adopted different tax rates, the price of diesel gasoline prices lower than 8% -28%.

3, China's high-quality diesel prices will not be low

Since the vast majority of users of diesel diesel Yaoqiubugao quality, lower grade diesel is not too small, the level of diesel will be more complicated, post on the input-output ratio is uneconomical, the price of diesel Gaojiu lost the price advantage.
In the face of a large number of low-end users of diesel circumstances, diesel-care policy response is certainly the means of production, high-grade diesel will not be similar to the European equivalent of care.

4, diesel cost ineffective

Changchun is the diesel cars of the world, many of which are diesel rental cars, good benefits. But the popularity of the private car? » No!

Diesel engine accessories expensive, can not afford, but your diesel vehicles, not fuel efficient private car to save money. Jetta expensive than petrol diesel vehicles over 10,000. Is about 3,000 liters of oil, even 100 kilometers per three liters of fuel-efficient best, Yaopao 100,000 kilometers to return to the private cars Yaopao more than five years to increase the cost of the same car, even if the implementation of fuel tax After three years in order to return to this. During the accessories and replacement of diesel is also alarming figures, not worth it. So very few private cars in Changchun diesel. In particular the major cities of the future implementation of more stringent emission standards, engine accessories import prices definitely people echocardiography. And if oil fails to pass the additional losses greater.

6, if the diesel oil wealth on the development of diesel rental

1, diesel rental more easily achieve win-win results

Passenger in oil, the largest oil lease, but a huge number, to the development of diesel rental less risk. The total - letting the country nearly 1 million, and a rental can be equivalent to 10 private cars Yong Youliang. This will resolve the nearly 10 million of growth in private car keep oil affordable. Even if diesel wealthy can fully digest.

And if the diesel supply problem, we control the early part of updated diesel to petrol rental. This is very easy to control. Clean diesel and guarantee the supply of rental city is the most easy, letting drivers certainly satisfied with this. According to proposals to estimates, diesel rental estimate on the back of this year, welcomed the drivers, the state better control, fuel economy and an evident result. Such large quantities of diesel rental, and lower costs. At the same time the huge volume of diesel rental keep many manufacturers will stimulate the development of diesel rental.

2, China's diesel technology in Europe and America need to rely on the large group, the interests of great temptation

Since China implemented the European emission standards, the European technology into products more easily. China's diesel car manufacturing, technical research and development level is still very backward compared with many foreign countries, even in the booming commercial vehicle fire in the area, the core is still dependent on foreign technology, more diesel cars in the world is a joint venture brand. China's modern diesel engine technology base is very weak, does not have the autonomy to develop a new generation of diesel engine capacity, and many foreign countries have universal application of advanced technologies in China is still in research stage, the development of domestic capacity and supply of spare parts also exists a big gap between the autonomous Development of the road a long way to go.

The commercial vehicle of the three standards have increased substantially to the cost, the future of diesel cars or transnational groups in the world, we can best use of the situation and more manufacturers of diesel rental development, it will bring more diesel technology, and technology proliferation, enhance the commercial vehicle Diesel technology.

7, energy conservation and environmental protection on the same emission fuel-efficient, a national action? »

1, the development of energy conservation and environmental protection of small emission-saving society is an important symbol of

Japan, and other cars popular in many countries in the early development of small displacement of a clear policy, Japan's energy serious tension, with the support of small displacement in the policy of continuous adjustment, which ensure that the reserve ratio of micro-car has a higher level. Its micro-fuel consumption of petrol vehicles in the same five liters about oil than diesel cars are not many, but Japan has not encountered serious problems than the steam firewood. Therefore, we should not over-emphasize the issue of the future prosperity of diesel. How the limited resources of energy, the use of fossil resources to jump out of the circle to find ways is the key.

2, China's much-needed good basis for supporting policies for the energy-saving building

Energy-saving is the best way to the most economic way car, small emission fuel-efficient energy conservation and environmental protection, and conservation area, accounting for roads, and other resources, but the state has not yet introduced policies to encourage. Some provisions of the current policy instead of a policy of repression » We decide the future of the energy lines of social development and stability. Energy-saving is a major issue. Is a comprehensive project.


CPI we are all familiar with, the reasons for that pork supply problems. Early is the skyrocketing price of pork has been added to the price when it found that while the pre-feed price changes and other factors difficult to grasp. Such incidents reflect the interests of vulnerable groups must be strong concern, some would prefer a little rich, farmers must not allow the enthusiasm of the damage, otherwise the ultimate punishment or the community as a whole.